利率在债券艰难的一年之后达到顶峰,随着债券收益率的下降,债券价格也随之下跌。
10年期美国国债从1.5%增至4.2%。 10年期公债收益率(殖利率)已跌至3.7%,或将跌至2.5%.
由于市场猜测联储局可能会因应近期的升息步伐而放缓。
10月份通胀数据有所缓和。

目前,以市场为基础的通胀指标定价远低于通胀水平。
创年内新高。 债券利率受到通货膨胀的这种下降的消极和积极影响
未来的通胀预期已经下降,这是积极的,如果通胀数据开始读取的话
再次上升,这可能会导致更高的利率。

根据10年的长期历史,衰退往往会导致利率下降
目前最强烈的迹象显示,第四季本地经济可能会出现衰退。
尽管经济增长有所改善,但香港经济在2022年第四季仍持续增长。

根据消费者的长期历史,经济衰退常常导致较低的通胀读数
通货膨胀。

自收益率曲线反演以来,研究收益率在反演后的表现似乎是合乎逻辑的。
是衰退即将来临的可靠指标。 最著名的经济衰退指标——10年期
美国财政部2年期公债收益率(殖利率)今年4月转为负数.
从表面上看,它对1978年以来八次反转的汇率趋势没有多少了解。
当通货膨胀率同比超过5%时,3个月,6个月和12个月中的通货膨胀率更高
在1978年和1980年分别倒置之后。 5%的通胀率是武断的,但5%的通胀率是武断的。
1988年最接近于4.2%的读数,1978年最低的读数为7.7%;
因此,这是一个合理的休息。
最近一篇文章考察了一个不太为人所知但却很强烈的衰退信号在美国的反转。
十一月 此外,这项研究对10年期国债收益率提出了普遍矛盾的观点。
预演课程 尽管正确地预见到了这三个国家即将出现的经济衰退
例如,通胀上升期与1973年、1978年和1980年的短期远期利差倒挂的情况。
确实导致后年利率上升。

这些数据集应该谨慎使用,因为它们太小,不能支持可靠的预测。
即便如此,许多人仍然相信经济衰退能解决通货膨胀问题,或者总是会有所收益
正如他们最近记忆中的那样,衰退了,但证据清楚地表明,这并不总是如此。
案情。
回报风险似乎还不利于承担更大的利率风险。
在考虑投资组合的创建和风险管理时,应考虑投资组合中的风险。

由于债券与股价之间的相关性极低,若收益率下跌,股票价格会下跌。
即使长期债券利润损失,投资组合仍会大幅上升。 相比之下,分配给各缔约方的国家和区域集团、私营部门和私营部门。
若利率继续上升,并成为市场稳定因素,短期债券可能会表现相当理想。
若股市见涨停板,投资组合将会继续下跌。

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