2021年,芯片不足首次导致汽车生产线中断时,半导体产业首次受到关注。 大家突然都在谈论为汽车提供多种不同功能的微型芯片,从车内照明到座椅控制,再到盲点检测。 当一些高科技和消费电子公司报告芯片短缺或对供应链表示担忧时,重点转移了。 每个人都明白我们生活在一个半导体世界。

半导体短缺是由各种问题共同造成的。 除了半导体工厂产能不足等长期存在的产业问题外,新冠肺炎大流行也提出了前所未有的挑战。 例如,随着2020年初车辆销量减少,汽车企业减少了芯片订单。 2020年下半年,其他应用程序的需求恢复速度比预想的要快,半导体业界为了满足需求,已经转移了生产线。

半导体企业提高了吞吐量,从2019年的5%左右,为2021年的收益增长做出了约9%的贡献。 各国政府也在增加对半导体技术的投资,以减轻全球供应链中断的影响。

但是,由于半导体制造过程的复杂性,目前芯片不足现象在短期内很难得到解决。 对于在生产线中已经建立良好的产品,典型的提前期可以超过四个月(见下文)。 将产品移至不同的生产地点通常需要另外六个月(即使在现有工厂也是如此)。 转换到不同的制造商通常需要一年或更长的时间,因为芯片的设计必须根据新合作伙伴的具体制造过程进行修改。 此外,有些芯片可能包含特定于制造商的知识产权,可能需要更改或许可。

全球范围内的利害关系

许多半导体需求企业已经在重新考虑其长期采购战略。 部分企业从”准时”订购模式转变为提前几个月订购半导体的模式。 许多半导体公司正在修改长期战略,以保持竞争力。
半导体公司作出的决定可能对其工业和整个经济产生巨大的经济影响。 赌注再高也不过了。 2000年代初,半导体公司的利润率很低,大部分回报低于资本成本。 然而,在过去十年中,由于大多数行业对微芯片的需求激增、技术部门的快速增长、云计算使用率的增加以及许多子部门的持续整合,盈利能力有所改善。 因此,半导体行业的收益性与其他行业相比大幅提高,预计这种趋势将持续下去。

关键产业的下一步

半导体产业收益性上升得到了资本市场的补偿,该领域企业从2015年末到2019年末,每年向股东提供25%的总收益。 去年,消费者和企业为了应对新冠肺炎大流行,增加了所有种类的数码设备的购买量,股东们平均每年获得了50%的收益率。 问题在于半导体产业能否继续带来如此强劲的回报,特别是当大流行病在需求模式、供应链和其他问题上造成不确定性时。
除了增加生产能力外,半导体公司还可以采取若干步骤来保持增长和满足客户需求。 它们 可以 进行 更多 的 并购 和 合作 , 以便 在 有利 的 部门 取得 竞争 优势 , 并 扩大 其 客户 基础 。 半导体公司也可能增加对尖端技术的投资,使它们能够为自动驾驶汽车、人工智能和其他快速增长领域开发尖端芯片。 在这些不确定时期,更敏捷的策略可能尤其重要。

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