新冠肺炎大流行开始后,供应链中断成为世界经济的主要课题。 工厂关闭(特别是在亚洲),以及广泛的封锁和流动限制,造成了物流网络中断、运输成本上升和交货期延长。 已经制定了一些指标来评估这些中断,尽管这些指标往往侧重于全球供应链的具体方面。 在本帖中,我们提出了全球供应链压力指数(GSCPI),这是一种新指标,它综合了若干常用的指标,以便更全面地总结影响全球供应链的潜在中断。

供应链发展指标

56. 已采用各种方法来评价供应链问题。 这些问题可能发生在国家内部——例如港口的积压或卡车司机短缺——也可能像集装箱短缺一样跨越国界蔓延。 因此,我们提议的衡量标准基于旨在捕获对国内和国际供应链造成压力的因素的变量。

我们研究的第一套指标是跨境运输的成本。 首先,我们使用波罗的海干燥指数(BDI)的数据,该指数跟踪煤炭或钢铁等原材料运输成本。 其次,我们使用哈佩克斯指数,它跟踪八类全集装箱船舶在租船市场的集装箱运输费率的变化。 最后,美国劳工统计局(BLS)制定价格指数,衡量往返美国的空运成本,我们使用进出亚洲和欧洲空运的空运价格指数。

下面的两个图表显示了我们的运输成本衡量标准。 虽然最近几个月BDI开始放缓,但从新冠肺炎大流行低谷开始,两个海运费用指数都呈现出巨大的增长势头。 值得注意的是,哈佩克斯措施比全球金融危机恢复期增长得多,而生物直接投资的增长则与全球金融委员会时期一致。 下图显示了美国和亚洲以及美国和欧洲的进出境空运费用。 从亚洲和欧洲到美国的空运费用急剧上升。

第二套指标是根据国家一级的采购经理指数调查得出的数据。 在国家覆盖面方面,我们专注于样本长度大、通过全球供应链紧密相连的经济体:欧元区、中国、日本、韩国、台湾、英国和美国。 由于美国的采购经理人指数数据仅始于2007年,因此我们把采购经理人指数数据与供应管理研究所的制造业调查数据结合起来。我们从这些采购经理人指数调查中得出了以下具体国家制造业采购经理人指数的子成分:”交货时间”,它概括了供应链延误的程度。 经济影响生产者——这一变量可以被视为一种趋势。

全球供应链压力指数

前面讨论的变量包含关于不同区域供应链状况的有用信息。 然而,每种衡量标准都强调全球供应链可能中断的不同方面。 此外,全球供应链的发展使各国的工业相互联系更加紧密,空运和海运货物运输促进了这种相互联系。 例如,美国制造的最终产品往往由亚洲和欧洲制造的零部件组装而成。 因此,我们将制定一项供应链压力措施,将各国具体供应链措施的数据与上述全球运输成本措施结合起来。

具体国家的采购经理人指数组成部分和运输成本系列的变动可归因于需求或供应的变化。 我们利用采购经理人指数调查的额外信息,为我们的七大经济体更好地隔离每个数据系列的供应方驱动因素。 更具体地说,我们收集关于 PMI 子组件 “新订单” 的数据,该子组件捕获了客户对企业产品的需求程度,并回归了针对特定国家的供应链 PMI 度量(交货时间、积压和采购库存),以消除该新订单组件同时值和两个滞后值,从而消除 de de de de de de de de de de de de de de de de de de de de de de de de de de de de de lifferglicalyclawnam这三个供应链PMI子组件的指令性因素。
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