在美国,目前的通货膨胀率为9.1%。 美国劳工统计局6月份的官方通货膨胀数据如下。 食品价格整体上涨了10.4%,用于”家庭食品”的产品上涨了12.

我们不必眼睁睁地看着高通胀像敌后被俘的间谍一样把我们打倒,侵蚀我们的购买力。 相反,我们可能想出一个策略来逃避对手,并可能从中获利。

少吃是阻止食品价格上涨的一种方法。 考虑到美国人有暴饮暴食的倾向,食品价格上涨实际上可能有助于减肥。 不幸的是,人们可能转而吃价格较低、可能是不健康的饭菜。 物价上涨有三个主要原因,特别是在农业、粮食和农业部门。

导致食物通胀的因素

货币供给——随着货币流通的增加,预计美联储在大流行期间提供的货币和预算支持将直接导致2021年通胀的3%。
供应链中断——陆路和海路运输都出现了延误。 这都是由于新冠肺炎疫情带来的封锁、人力不足、港口周转时间停滞等原因。 另外,与2021年5月相比,2022年5月的燃料价格上涨了75%。 农业的分配方面也存在困难。 从2020年到2021年,装船托盘的价格上涨了。 消费者正在感受到粮食生产和分配成本上升的影响。
全球冲突——通胀压力只是因为俄罗斯入侵乌克兰而增加。 事实上,根据美联储的说法,这场冲突造成了1.3%的通胀。 这两个国家都是重要的商品供应国。 世界粮食出口的30%来自俄罗斯,但乌克兰每月平均出口600万吨农产品。 因此,世界贸易组织(WTO)自矛盾开始以来,将2022年进出口预测值下调了1.7%。 随着全球特定商品的生产、出口和供应的减少,特定食品由于稀缺而变得更加难以获得和昂贵。
另见《伟大的辞职及其对你意味着什么》

高通胀常常对固定收益证券产生负面影响。 债券价格往往由于利率上升而下降,因为利率上升而收紧了货币政策,这是为了抑制通货膨胀。

另一方面,某些资产在通胀高企时实际上往往表现良好。 例如,与价格指数挂钩的第一系列政府债券目前正提供创纪录的收益率。 房地产投资从价格上涨中获益,通常在通货膨胀期间表现良好。 自去年以来,美国几个重要城市的租金成本上涨了40%。 因此,在一个高通胀的经济体中,保留你的出租房产是有道理的。

通货膨胀的上升也可能有利于农田投资。 自1990年以来,农田产生了正的实际回报,受益于土地价值和作物价格的上涨。

粮食的需求越来越大。 据统计,到2050年,地球上的人口将比现在多22亿。 农民需要生产的粮食数量将需要增加70%。

从这一声明中可以看出,农民必须增加生产,同时减少使用资源。 具备满足这一长期需要的理想条件的高质量农田,即使不增加,其价值也会随着时间而保持稳定。

供求共同作用的动态为该类资产的投资人提供了强大的后风。

我们发表的更多报告:

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