住宅市场是目前的主要争论焦点,在流行时期大幅扩张后,呈现出放缓趋势。 预计在接下来的12至18个月里,房地产价值在稳定之前会下降,然后逐渐恢复。

尽管它们将是不均衡的,但预计未来五年的总体回报率将在15%至25%之间。 由于近期前景不明朗,为首期付款而储蓄的投资者可能会考虑采用我们AI推动的投资组合保护套期保值解决方案,以减低波动性。

住房市场是尤其如此的一个领域。 买房常常是个人有史以来最大的投资。 真正有动力去做正确的事情是有意义的。 尽可能远地展望未来是一个明智的想法,但它也需要多年的积蓄和准备。

当然,一切可能并不按计划进行,但至少有一个策略可以确保,不管结果如何,你都在正确的道路上前进。

预测第一年

预计明年房地产市场会下降的事实不会令人惊讶。 在经历了历史性的低利率之后,由于美联储连续四次上调0.75个百分点以对抗天价通胀,抵押贷款平均水平大幅上升。

举例来说,30万元按揭,年期为30年,利率为2.98%,则每月须缴付1,262元。 以同样的按揭贷款计算,每月还款将增加750元至2,012元,按现时平均7.08%的利率计算。

在 预算 已经 紧张 和 难以 加薪 的 时候 , 这 相当于 每月 增加 750 美元 。

预测第三年

高盛(Goldman Sachs)的研究也预测,房地产市场将在2023年末触底。 由于预计到2024年中期,价格将趋于平稳,因此预计不会出现快速复苏。

此外,这与上市公司提供的许多建议是一致的。 不过,这可能会提高他们的底线,为未来的发展作好准备。 裁员,特别是在IT行业,变得越来越普遍。

这一举措在未来几个月内可能会动摇,但明年中期左右就会稳定下来,这是有道理的。

国内市场可能也遵循类似的模式。 虽然抵押贷款利率会随着时间的推移而上升,但即便利率仍然存在风险,房价仍将受到压力。 购房者可能会推迟购房,而这种情况仍在继续,看来紧缩周期即将结束,进一步压低了市场。

预测第五年

展望未来五年是困难的。 由于距离太远,可能会发生许多意想不到的事件,颠覆我们对经济和房地产市场可能如何表现的预测。

全美房地产经纪人协会首席经济学家Lawrence Yun预测,未来五年,全国房价总涨幅可能在15%至25%之间。 这可能会在今后一年出现下降,到2024年趋于平稳,然后进入相当高的增长时期。

Bankrate首席财务分析师格雷格?麦克布赖德(Greg McBride)表示赞同。 他预测,今后5年内,美国房地产市场的年均收益率很有可能达到中低位。

我们知道,房地产通常能提供高于通胀率的稳定长期回报。 即使没有直线,时间越长,我们也会越确定传统上房地产市场上升的旅行方向。

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