美元兑全球大部分货币今年表现良好。 本文将解释这一行动以及它如何影响世界股票市场。 在美国联邦储备委员会(Fed)加息期间,美元增长与许多其他国家经济疲弱相对应,反过来又增加了对美国国债和美元的需求。
然而,由于CPI和PPI数值低于预期,贸易加权美元最近大幅下跌。 美国长期债券利率因此下降,美元也随之下降。

美元大幅升值,从2021年的低点到最近的高点,升值了约28%。 10月和11月初触及的低位,继上周跌破50-DMA之后,均证实美元短期高位. 尽管美元尚未突破长期支撑,但考虑到上行幅度和最近一次崩溃的严重性,美元可能正在创造一个更长期的顶部。

必须考虑货币如何影响国际股票市场。 USD的上升趋势大部分是在很多全球市场达到顶峰的2022年初左右开始的。
当美元走强时,国际股票市场,特别是发展中国家,往往表现相对较差。 由于美元ETF受到货币走强的影响,这对拥有国际投资的美国投资者来说更加糟糕。 全球市场表现强劲(以美元计),与上多年美元贬值时期相对应,新兴经济体尤其如此。 因此,美元走强有助于美国股市超越同行。

迄今为止,其他货币(YTD)遭受的损失中,以及通过最近的美元峰值所遭受的损失; 一些受冲击最严重的货币在9月份损失了8%到20%不等。 巴西雷亚尔和墨西哥比索是仅有的两大货币,基本没有受损。

由于本地股市在2021年底达到最高水平,加上货币兑美元贬值,截至9月份,这些海外股市以美元计算平均下跌25%。 巴西、印度、墨西哥和泰国是唯一没有下跌至少20%的市场,这一点在下一页的表格中可见一斑。

不过,过去六个星期,由于基础股票市场及外币的超卖情况有所改善,美元交易的境外上市指数基金(ETF)大幅上升。

Vanguard Total International Stock Index ETF 是非美国股市的体面代表。 由于美元下跌,该指数较9月低点上涨15%以上,相对表现优于标准普尔500指数。

要预测未来一段时间的外国市场表现持续疲弱及美元疲弱,还为时过早。 实际上,相对于仍然占主导地位的美元和美国市场,其他货币和全球市场仍有许多东西需要展示。 目前,美元长期走弱和股市表现不佳的可能性仍然不大。
然而,如果我们考虑如何投资于这一潜力,我们更愿意在短期内推动这一全球升势的海外市场。 具体包括韩国、南非、墨西哥、韩国、德国和法国。 这些市场要么高于200-DMA,要么在美元在过去六周上涨15%-25%后测试底部。

 

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