半导体领域正在发生无声的革命。 那些我们习以为常的、在学校里钻研出来的假设，正被传统上管理该部门的规章制度所否定。 绝对正确的摩尔定律，即质量、速度和成本的提高将源于指数增长，已不再有效。
人们开始明白制造芯片是多么的困难。 台积电和ASML在地理上的集中，加上短缺，突显了芯片制造的科幻性质。 在今后的道路上等待我们的是未知的挑战。 制造半导体的过程将变得更加复杂、昂贵和昂贵。 换句话说，困难将进一步恶化。
芯片制造商未来将需要更大的规模、更多的技能和更多的资金来运作。 虽然之前也写过,但我想更详细地说明是什么原因导致半导体制造价格上涨。 最前沿的芯片到最基本的芯片都受到影响。 这种趋势不是新的，它已经持续了一段时间，但我认为它即将获得势头。 地球上的每个人都有可能受到价格上涨的影响。 通货膨胀的这一代价是永久的。
我想先回顾一下摩尔定律的消亡，这样你们就能看到我们是如何走到这里的。 晶体管能量刻度、频率刻度以及晶体管密度增加的多核刻度结束都处于峰值。 结束费用分摊比停止这些趋势更为重要。 当我们用新方法不断增加晶体管密度时，每一种方法都会增加更多的费用。
ASML在投资者日大胆地宣称摩尔定律将继续保持系统级可伸缩性。 这也被称为精密包装。 然而，除了生产小型晶体管的价格上涨之外，这些费用也增加了。
虽然我认为先进的封装将有助于晶体管密度，但我不认为这将导致更便宜的芯片。 事实上，自2010年初以来，晶体管的每美元价格越来越高。
不仅有新芯片和旧芯片,制造芯片的半导体工厂也在整合,战略性也越来越强。 最尖端芯片生产地最前沿,实际上空间并不大。 影响半导体价格的第三个因素是提供独特产品的工厂将增加的成本转嫁给消费者。 世界依赖于台积电及其产品，因为它不是一个价格承受者。 尽管物价上涨，但他们开始获得更大的利润。 没有工厂的公司被迫付出更多的代价。
所有这些因素单独行动都会支持不断上涨的价格。 从整体来看，价格上涨是不可避免的。
我认为，由于进一步提高工具价格、摩尔定律的经济优势受到侵蚀以及落后产能问题的影响，我们在半导体领域所目睹的历史成本下降将开始减少。 在某些情况下，我认为后缘价格上涨还会持续下去。 我想强调的是，在你开始对通货膨胀进行无法控制的投机之前，半导体只是一个价值5300亿美元的行业，或占全球GDP的一半。 这不会导致全球范围的通货膨胀。
没有迹象表明需求方面会有所放缓。 PC、移动、数据中心、汽车、物联网(IoT)等是可靠、快速扩张的终端市场,垂直度最大。 未来的应用，如机器学习，将需要增加计算能力。
硅提供了食物，而软件消耗了我们生活的方方面面。 所有这些都发生在摩尔定律突然结束的时候。 简单地说，价格上涨是由需求增加和供应减少引起的。
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