美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)曾多次加息,以遏制通胀,这是40年来最高的水平,正如吴唐所做的那样。 汽油很贵。 食物也是! 如果你购物的话,你已经明白这个概念了。 如果你忘了,电视上有几个中期选举广告可以提醒你。

美联储的理论是,提高利率将使借款更加昂贵,这将导致经济活动减少,从而导致价格下降。 此外,大量美国工人可能因此被解雇,这将打开劳动力市场,使工人更容易找到工作。

此外,这将导致美元走强,这将增加美国商品出口成本,并损害国内生产者。 制造业是”利息敏感”的行业,这意味着职员们比其他大部分人受到利率变动的影响更大。

美联储的双重职责是确保高就业率并控制消费者价格,而前者现在正在超越后者。 它也不太可能很快结束。 像《柳树》中的村魔法师一样阅读美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔发言的经济作家们虽然认为他的意思是未来的利率上升幅度不会像今天这样大,但美联储将一直提高利率,直到看到物价下降为止。

不管世行未来做什么,制造业已经做出了反应。 采购经理人指数要么跌入负值,要么接近负值,这表明该行业正在下滑,正如我们几天前在博客上指出的那样。

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作者 Zeng Zhuojun

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